The wheat complex posted losses across the three markets on Friday, following a larger than expected production total. Chicago SRW wheat was down 9 to 10 cents, with September down 11 ¾ cents this week. KC HRW contracts were down 10 to 11 cents on the day, taking the week pullback to 11 ¾ cents. MPLS spring wheat was down the hardest, 18 to 25 cents lower on Friday, with a weekly decline of 33 ½ cents.

Friday afternoon’s Commitment of Traders report indicated spec funds continuing to trim their large net short position in Chicago wheat futures and options, this week by 7,477 contracts to 55,594 contracts as of July 8th. In Kansas City wheat, managed money added 971 contracts to their net short position to 43,319 contracts.

Crop Production data from this morning showed all wheat production hiked by 8 mbu to 1.929 mub, as yield was raised by 1 bpa from last month to 52.6. Winter wheat production was dropped by 37 mbu to 1.345 bbu on a drop to acreage. Spring wheat came in above estimates at 503.6 mbu, with durum at 79.7 mbu.   

The larger US production and increased carryover (851 mbu +10) was offset by an increase to exports by 25 mbu to 850 mbu. That cut the stocks estimate for new crop by 8 mbu to 890. World wheat stock for the end of 2025/26 were down 1.24 MMT from last month at 261.52 MMT. That came as Canadian stocks were cut on a 1 MMT reduction to production. 

FranceAgriMer shows the soft wheat crop from France at 68% gd/ex, up 1 point from last week, with harvest at 36%.

Jul 25 CBOT Wheat  closed at $5.40 3/4, down 9 1/2 cents,

Sep 25 CBOT Wheat  closed at $5.45, down 9 1/2 cents,

Jul 25 KCBT Wheat  closed at $5.04 1/4, down 1 1/4 cents,

Sep 25 KCBT Wheat  closed at $5.24 1/4, down 10 1/2 cents,

Jul 25 MGEX Wheat  closed at $5.98 1/4, down 24 ¾ cents,

Sep 25 MGEX Wheat  closed at $6.13 3/4, down 18 cents,