Hogs Closed Off Highs but still Stronger for NASS Report

Pig grazing in field

Nearby lean hog futures were up by as much as $1.25 for the day’s high, but prices ended the day mixed / mostly higher. June was down by 15c for Thursday which finished the week’s move on a net $1.75 gain and put the monthly gain at $1.25. June traded the month of March from -$1.58 to +$3.27. USDA’s National Average Afternoon Base Hog price increased $2.21 to $81.47, with the WCB quote at $80.96 and the ECB quote at $83.22. 

The quarterly NASS report had March 1 hog inventory at 74.751 million head, a 0.6% increase vs last year. The trade was looking for a slightly lower hog herd yr/yr. USDA reported the breeding herd at 6.02 million head. The Dec-Feb pig crop was 1.9% above last year with 33.15m head, the trade was looking for a 1.4% increase on average. Farrowing intentions for March-May were 2.915 million head, or 0.88% below last year vs the 2.3% drop expected. 

USDA’s FAS reported 55.3k MT of pork was sold for the week that ended 3/21. That was a new yearly high, and the most since 12/15/22, led by sales to Vietnam and Italy. Shipments came in at 34.2k MT for a yearly total of 390k MT. That remains 9.4% ahead of last year’s pace. 

Pork cutout futures remain light in OI, but closed Thursday with 12 cent gains. The April contract was up by a net $2.35 for the month of March. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout Value was shown at $94.52 on Thursday afternoon after a 46 cent increase. USDA estimated FI hog slaughter at 1.946 million head for the week through Thursday. That compares to 1.952 million last week, and to 1.921 million during the same week last year. 

 

Apr 24 Hogs  closed at $86.625, up $0.525,

May 24 Hogs  closed at $92.500, up $0.100

Apr 24 Pork Cutout  closed at $95.625, up $0.125,


On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.