Ag Market Commentary

Corn ended the Thursday session down 3/4 to 3 cents. This morning, USDA announced a 1.432 MMT corn sale to Mexico, split with 891k for 2020/21 delivery, and 541k for 21/22. Private exporters also sold 140,000 MT of corn to unknown. USDA’s weekly Export Sales report showed 2.244 MMT of corn sold on the week ending 10/22. That was 22% higher wk/wk, well above analyst estimates and up 308% from the same week last year. The top buyers were, in order, unknown, Mexico, and Japan. Shipments were 18% lighter on the week, but with 29 mbu shipped were still 49% larger than the same week last year. Sorghum bookings were 60,838 MT for the week. That was down from 281k LW but above the 56k from last year. China and unknown were the only buyers listed. Mexico, Saudi Arabia, and Canada also purchased a combined 68k MT of 21/22 sorghum. USDA’s Ag Attaché sees Argentina’s 2020/21 corn output at 48 MMT and exports at 33 million. That is 2 MMT and 1 MMT below USDA’s October WASDE estimates. IGC lowered their corn production forecast 4 MTM to 1.156 billion. Ending stocks are estimated at 279 MMT for October, compared to 285 for September.

Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.98 1/2, down 3 cents,

Mar 21 Corn closed at $4.01 1/2, down 2 3/4 cents,

May 21 Corn closed at $4.03 1/4, down 2 cents,

Jul 21 Corn closed at $4.04 1/4, down 1 1/2 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Front month soybean futures closed the session with losses of 1 1/2 to 5 1/2 cents. The deferred months closed fractionally mixed, pulling some of the inverse out. Soybean meal futures closed the session with $0.10 to $1/ton gains. BO futures ended with 36 to 37 point losses. The weekly Export Sales report listed 1.62 MMT of bean bookings for the week ending 10/22. That was down 27% wk/wk, but in-line with estimates and up 80% yr/yr. China and Mexico were the top soybean purchasers on the week. For soymeal, USDA showed 199k MT booked. That was on the low end of estimates but up 11% yr/yr. Bean oil bookings were 80% below the same week last year with just 5,971 MT booked. The intergovernmental body, International Grains Council, sees 2020/21 world bean output at 370 MMT. That was down 3 MMT from their Sept forecast and lowered stocks by 4 to 46 million.

Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $10.51 3/4, down 5 1/2 cents,

Jan 21 Soybeans closed at $10.50 1/2, down 4 1/4 cents,

Mar 21 Soybeans closed at $10.40 1/4, down 1 1/2 cents,

May 21 Soybeans closed at $10.36 1/4, down 1/4 cent,

Dec 20 Soybean Meal closed at $376.90, up $0.20

Dec 20 Soybean Oil closed at $33.06, down $0.36

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



At the closing bell on Thursday, front month domestic wheat futures were in in the red. SRW futures gave back 4 1/4 to 5 1/4 cents. HRW closed down by 3/4 to 1 1/4 cents. Spring wheat ended the day fractionally mixed to 4 1/4 cents weaker. USDA reported 743,176 MT of wheat bookings for the week ending 10/22. That was above estimates, 102% above LW and up 50% yr/yr. South Korea, Mexico, and Japan were the top destinations in the report. Exports from the same report were 230% higher wk/wk with 442,535 MT (16.26 mbu) shipped. Accumulated exports from weekly data is running 2.6% above last season’s pace with 10.632 MMT shipped since June 1. IGC’s October forecast calls for 764 MMT of wheat production. That was 1 MMT higher than the September number. Stocks were 3 MMT tighter at 291.

Dec 20 CBOT Wheat closed at $6.03 3/4, down 5 cents,

Dec 20 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.42, down 1 1/4 cents,

Dec 20 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.52 1/4, up 1/4 cent,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



October live cattle futures, which expire tomorrow, closed 42 cents higher at $106.27 with preliminary OI at 347 contracts. The other front months ended the session with triple digit gains of at least $1.77. Feeder cattle futures also closed with triple digit gains and ended the session $1.40 to $1.82 higher. October feeders expired at $136.45. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for 10/28 was $134.34, down by $1.19. Cash sales on Thursday remained light, with $106 in the South and $103 in NE. Beef export sales were reported at 18,853 MT for the week ending 10/22. That was down from 21.7k MT LW but still 19.8% higher yr/yr. Beef shipments are 666,564 MT for the year through 10/22. That outpaces 2019 by 1.5%. USDA’s wholesale boxed beef prices were stronger in the PM update. Choice boxes were $1.53 higher and Select boxes were up $1.65. USDA estimated the week’s cattle slaughter at 464,000 head through Thursday. That trails LW by 16,000 head and trails last year by 1,000.

Dec 20 Cattle closed at $107.975, up $3.300,

Feb 21 Cattle closed at $110.375, up $2.675,

Apr 21 Cattle closed at $113.525, up $2.150,

Nov 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $135.725, up $1.825

Jan 21 Feeder Cattle closed at $131.350, up $1.400

Mar 21 Feeder Cattle closed at $130.975, up $1.450

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean hog futures closed the Thursday session down 22 to 77 cents for the nearby contracts. The CME Lean Hog Index for the 27th was $1.20 lower at $76.27. USDA’s National Average Base Hog price for Thursday afternoon was $61.70, down 31 cents. The National Pork Carcass Cutout value was $87.57 in the PM report, $3.05 higher. Hams led the way with a $14.24 increase to $97.78 cwt. USDA’s Export Sales report had 28,971 MT of pork bookings on the week ending 10/22. Mexico and Japan were the top buyers, with Chinese business only accounting for 8.8% of the total. Pork exports were 14.5% above the same week last year with 37k MT. Accumulated shipments are 1.558 MMT, up 25% yr/yr, with 581,482 MT (37.3%) to China alone. USDA estimates the week’s FI hog slaughter at 1.956 million head through Thursday. That is 7,000 head more wk/wk and 5,000 more yr/yr.

Dec 20 Hogs closed at $65.625, down $0.750,

Feb 21 Hogs closed at $65.600, down $0.600

Apr 21 Hogs closed at $68.325, down $0.425

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton futures trading ended the Thursday session with 17 to 35 point losses. Upland cotton export sales from USDA’s weekly update were 288,693 RBs. That was 27% above LW and 105% higher yr/yr. Sales to the PRC were 28% of the total with 81,394 RBs. Cotton export shipments from the report were 228,801 RBs bringing the MY total to 2.93 million bales. USDA’s Spot Cotton Quotations report showed a light 1,038 bales sold at an average price of 65.07 cents/lb on 10/29. The Cotlook A index for the 28th was 5 points higher at 78.40 cents/lb. The AWP for cotton is 55.71 cents/lb, which will be updated after the close.

Dec 20 Cotton closed at 69.82, down 35 points,

Mar 21 Cotton closed at 70.8, down 23 points

May 21 Cotton closed at 71.49, down 21 points

Jul 21 Cotton closed at 71.99, down 17 points

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com

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