Soy Market Rallied Sharply on Tuesday

Pre-report trading left the soy complex solidly in the black. Meal was the strongest on the day with 2.14% to 3.11% gains. Soybeans closed with double digit gains through May ’21 contracts, with Nov up 2.2% on the day. Soybean oil futures closed 48 to 53 points higher. USDA announced a private export sale of 154,400 MT of soybeans to unknown. The national average soybean basis from cmdtyView is 53 cents under November for 10/6. The October cmdtyView yield forecast is still 50.5 bpa for 2020/21 beans. The trade average yield guess in a Bloomberg survey is 51.7 bpa vs. the September USDA estimate of 51.9. On average, analysts are looking for USDA to show soy production at 4.288 bbu. That would be down 25 mbu from Sept if realized. USDA will factor September frost/freeze damage into this report, as it occurred too late to be in the September edition. Official August bean export data from Census was 167.21 mbu. That left the MY total at 1.676 bbu. The Sept WASDE estimated 2019/20 soybean exports at 1.680 bbu. China was the destination for 35.52% of the MY’s shipments. That is up from 28% in 2018/29, but below the pre trade war 10-yr average of 55%.

Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $10.44, up 22 1/2 cents,

Jan 21 Soybeans closed at $10.45 1/2, up 20 1/2 cents,

Mar 21 Soybeans closed at $10.35 1/4, up 17 cents,

May 21 Soybeans closed at $10.30, up 12 1/4 cents,

Oct 20 Soybean Meal closed at $354.30, up $10.70

Oct 20 Soybean Oil closed at $33.29, up $0.48

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

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