Ag Market Commentary

Front month corn futures are up 6 1/2 to 8 1/4 cents so far with May and July over $4/bu. The national average corn basis from cmdtyView is 28 cents under Dec. Barchart released the cmdtyView corn yield forecast, at 178.2 bpa, that is down from 178.43 bpa in September. A Bloomberg survey has US average corn yield dropping to 177.9 bpa in Friday’s NASS report. USDA is currently at 178.5 bpa. The average trade estimate for production then is at 14.823 bbu, with estimates between 14.638 and 15.030. Traders expect USDA to show corn ending stocks at 2.120 bbu. That would be down 383 mbu from September if realized. USDA’s Crop Progress report saw harvest at 25% complete, up 1 point from the 5-yr average. In IA, 25% of corn was cut and NE fields were 21% cut. The neighboring states were 15 and 6 percentage points ahead of their respective averages.

Dec 20 Corn is at $3.87 1/2, up 8 cents,

Mar 21 Corn is at $3.96 1/2, up 7 1/4 cents,

May 21 Corn is at $4.01 1/2, up 6 3/4 cents,

Jul 21 Corn is at $4.04 3/4, up 6 1/2 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean futures are trading with midday gains of 14 to 28 1/2 cents. Meal futures are trading with double digit gains, up 3.07% to 3.99% so far. Soybean oil futures are 38 to 41 points higher. USDA announced a private export sale of 154,400 MT of soybeans to unknown. The national average soybean basis from cmdtyView is 53 cents under November for 10/6. The October cmdtyView yield forecast is still 50.5 bpa for 2020/21 beans. The trade average yield guess in a Bloomberg survey is 51.7 bpa vs. the September USDA estimate of 51.9. On average, analysts are looking for USDA to show soy production at 4.288 bbu. That would be down 25 mbu from Sept if realized. The weekly Crop Progress report from NASS had soybean harvest at 38% complete as of 10/4. That was 10% points ahead of average and up 18% points from last week.

Nov 20 Soybeans are at $10.50, up 28 1/2 cents,

Jan 21 Soybeans are at $10.51 3/4, up 26 3/4 cents,

Mar 21 Soybeans are at $10.41, up 22 3/4 cents,

May 21 Soybeans are at $10.35 1/2, up 17 3/4 cents,

Oct 20 Soybean Meal is at $357.30, up $13.70

Oct 20 Soybean Oil is at $33.22, up $0.41

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Front month wheat markets are in the black at Tuesday’s midday. SRW is 8 to 10 3/4 cents higher. KC HRW is 9 to 13 cents higher. MGE wheat is up 5 1/4 to 7 3/4 cents. The trade is looking for USDA to show between 830 and 917 mbu for the October ending stocks forecast. USDA’s monthly Supply and demand estimates are to be released on Friday. Analysts are also expecting a 2.2 MMT reduction for world stocks. USDA has winter wheat planting 52% complete as of 10/4. The trade was looking for 48-50%, and the 5-yr average is for 47%. Winter wheat emergence was reported at 24%, compared to the 5-yr average of 21%.

Dec 20 CBOT Wheat is at $5.95, up 10 3/4 cents,

Dec 20 KCBT Wheat is at $5.37 1/4, up 13 cents,

Dec 20 MGEX Wheat is at $5.43 1/4, up 7 3/4 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Tuesday cattle futures are 2 to 45 cents higher in the front months at midday. Feeder cattle futures are trading with triple digit midday losses. The 10/2 Feeder Cattle Index from CME was 22 cents lower at $142.74. There have been no reports of cash trade yet this week, tomorrow’s FCE auction has 470 head listed so far. Wholesale boxed beef prices were down this morning. Choice boxes were $216.16, down $0.82, and Select boxes were $0.81 lower to $207.20. USDA estimates 119,000 head of cattle slaughtered on Monday. Compared to 118 for both LW and LY.

Oct 20 Cattle are at $109.100, up $0.275,

Dec 20 Cattle are at $111.875, up $0.125,

Feb 21 Cattle are at $115.250, up $0.025,

Oct 20 Feeder Cattle are at $137.775, down $2.275

Nov 20 Feeder Cattle are at $137.575, down $2.350

Jan 21 Feeder Cattle are at $136.050, down $2.075

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Front month lean hog futures are trading with midday gains of 32 to 80 cents, with Oct and Dec up triple digits. Cash market indicators had been climbing, but are mixed this morning. The CME Lean Hog Index was $77.26 on 10/02, up 45 cents. USDA’s National Average Base Hog price was $0.32 lower in the AM update at $64.23. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout value was $94.50 down a nickel. The primal cuts were mixed, but bellies, up $18.73, and hams, down $13.54, were the biggest movers. Monday’s FI hog slaughter was estimated at 489,000 head. That starts the week even with LW but 4k head above LY.

Oct 20 Hogs are at $76.050, up $1.300,

Dec 20 Hogs are at $63.825, up $1.175

Feb 21 Hogs are at $68.975, up $0.800

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures are up 58 to 74 points at midday with the back months the strongest inflating carry. August Census data showed the first MY month for 2020/21 cotton shipments was 1.424m bales. That is the second highest on record for the month, just 48.8k bales below the all-time high in August ’07. Harvest for this season’s crop was 17% complete as of Sunday. Harvest in GA was 8%, which is below the 5-yr average of 15%. US cotton crop conditions were 5 points lower wk/wk to 311 on the Brugler500 index. The Cotlook A index for 10/05 was firm at 71.30 cents/lb. The week’s AWP for cotton is 50.67 cents/lb. The LDP is 1.33 cents through Thursday.

Dec 20 Cotton is at 66.71, up 68 points,

Mar 21 Cotton is at 67.57, up 65 points,

May 21 Cotton is at 68.28, up 70 points,

Jul 21 Cotton is at 68.82, up 74 points

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353

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