Ag Market Commentary

Overnight corn trading has futures 1 to 2 cents higher to open the Tuesday session. A Bloomberg survey has US average corn yield dropping to 177.9 bpa in Friday’s NASS report. USDA is currently at 178.5 bpa. Corn futures were fractionally lower Monday. After the close, USDA’s Crop Progress report saw 87% of the 2020/21 corn crop at maturity. The 5-yr average is 78%. NASS showed harvest at 25%, up 1 point from the 5-yr average. In IA, 25% of corn was cut and NE fields were 21% cut. The neighboring states were 15 and 6 percentage points ahead of their respective averages. Corn conditions improved 1% good/ex to reach 359 on the Brugler500 index. FranceAgriMEr said the French corn harvest was 32% complete, up from 15% LW. In Ukraine 18% of corn has been picked so far, yielding 4.47 MMT. The weekly Export Inspections report showed 34.014 mbu of corn were shipped on the week ending 10/01. Corn exports are 144.4 mbu through the first 5 weeks of the marketing year, up 81% yr/yr.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soy markets are 8 to 10 cents per bushel higher this morning after a comeback rally on Monday. March ’21 contracts closed 1/2 cent in the red, where the other nearbys were fractionally to a penny higher. Meal futures closed the day $5.30 to $5.90 lower. BO closed the session 2.7% to 2.84% higher. Bean oil was up sharply again overnight. USDA’s weekly Export Inspections report showed 61.25 million bushels of beans shipped on the week ending October 1. China took 73% of the total. Accumulated soybean exports through October 1 were reported at 242.5 mbu, up 57% from 2019/20’s pace. The weekly Crop Progress report from NASS saw 85% of new crop beans dropping leaves, compared to the 5-yr average of 82%. Soybean harvest was 38% complete as of 10/4. That is 10% points ahead of average and up 18% points from last week. The WCB states were all above 50% done, with IA @ 55%, MN @ 61%, ND @ 60%, NE at 66% and SD was 60%. The 5-yr averages for those states are between 20-38%. Condition ratings increased 1 point to 365 on the Brugler500 index. The trade average yield guess in a Bloomberg survey is 51.7 bpa vs. the September USDA estimate of 51.9. The median guess is 51.5, so we’re probably trading a lower number than the average guess.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Wheat futures are fractionally lower in the Chicago SRW this morning, but up as much as 2 cents in MPLS. KC HRW is hanging around UNCH. Winter wheat futures closed the session with double digits gains in the front months. Chicago SRW closed 7 3/4 to 11 cents in the black. HRW futures rallied 13 to 14 3/4 cents on the first trade day of the week. Spring wheat in Minneapolis closed the day up 3 3/4 to 4 1/2 cents. USDA has winter wheat planting 52% complete as of 10/4. The trade was looking for 48-50%, and the 5-yr average is for 47%. Winter wheat emergence was reported at 24%, compared to the 5-yr average of 21%. The Export Inspections report, with data from the week ending Oct 1, showed 643,671 MT of wheat shipments. That was 56,755 MT above last week’s shipments. The report also showed 9.888 MMT of wheat shipped MYTD, compared to 9 MMT in 2019/20.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Front month live cattle futures ended the Monday session 27 to 65 cents higher. Feeders rallied off midday losses and closed the session 5 to 50 cents higher. The 10/2 Feeder Cattle Index from CME was 22 cents lower at $142.74. There have been no reports of cash trade yet this week, last week’s sales were mostly $107-$108. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed, tightening the Choice/Select spread to $8.97. Choice boxes were $216.98, down $1.90. Select boxes were $0.40 higher to $208.01. USDA estimates 119,000 head of cattle slaughtered on Monday. Compared to 118 for both LW and LY.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean hog futures closed 15 to 55 cents higher. Cash market indicators were higher. The CME Lean Hog Index was $76.81 on 10/01, up 7 cents. The Fresh Bacon Index from CME was $194.37 for the week ending 10/02. USDA’s National Average Base Hog price was $1.16 higher in the PM update at $64.48. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout value was $2.85 higher to $95 flat. All of the primal cuts were higher, with the weakest gain coming as a 32 cent cwt. increase for butts. Monday’s FI hog slaughter was estimated at 489,000 head. That starts the week even with LW but 4k head above LY.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton markets head into daytime in the US with 8 to 10 point losses. Monday cotton closed 21 to 31 points higher. NASS said that 83% of the 2020/21 cotton has open bolls, compared to the 5-yr average of 75%. Harvest for this season’s crop was up 4 percentage points from last week to 17% complete. The 5-yr average is 20% harvested. Harvest in GA was 8%, which is below the 5-yr average of 15%. US cotton crop conditions were 5 points lower wk/wk to 311 on the Brugler500 index. OK fell the most on the week, dropping 18 points to 344. GA and KS ratings were also sharply lower falling 12 and 11 points respectively. The Cotlook A index for 10/02 was firm at 71.30 cents/lb. The week’s AWP for cotton is 50.67 cents/lb. The LDP is 1.33 cents through Thursday.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
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Phone: 402-697-3623
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E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com

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