Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures were fractionally lower today, trying to size up harvest pressure and also the trade expectations for Friday’s WASDE report. After the close, USDA’s Crop Progress report said 25% of the 2020/21 corn crop was picked as of October 4. Corn conditions improved 1% good/ex to generate a 359 on the Brugler500 index. Milo harvest was even with the 5-yr average at 38% cut. FranceAgriMEr said the French corn harvest was 32% complete, up from 15% LW. In Ukraine 18% of corn has been picked so far, yielding 4.47 MMT. USDA announced a large export sale for 160,020 MT of corn to Mexico this morning. The weekly Export Inspections report showed 34.014 mbu of corn were shipped on the week ending 10/01. That was 15.38 mbu above the same week in 19/20. China was the top destination for the week’s shipments with 40% of the total. MYTD corn exports are 144.4 mbu through the first 5 weeks, up 81% yr/yr.

Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.79 1/2, down 1/4 cent,

Mar 21 Corn closed at $3.89 1/4, unch,

May 21 Corn closed at $3.94 3/4, unch,

Jul 21 Corn closed at $3.98 1/4, down 1/4 cent,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybean futures rallied back from midday lows and ended mostly higher. March ’21 contracts closed 1/2 cent in the red, where the other nearbys were fractionally to a penny higher. Meal futures closed the day $5.30 to $5.90 lower. BO closed the session 2.7% to 2.84% higher. USDA’s weekly Export Inspections report showed 61.25 million bushels of beans shipped on the week ending October 1. That was up 13.6 mbu wk/wk and 22.6 mbu yr/yr. China was the main destination with 1.223 MMT – 73% of the total. Accumulated soybean exports through October 1 were reported at 242.5 mbu, up 57% from 2019/20’s pace. The weekly Crop Progress report from NASS saw soybean harvest 38% complete as of October 4. That is 10% points ahead of average and up 18% points from last week. Trade ideas had been mostly around 34%. Condition ratings remained 64% good/ex, but increased 1 point to 365 on the Brugler500 index. Mato Grosso soy planting is 1.7% complete according to IMEA; the 5-yr average pace is 9.59%. Prolonged dryness was cited as the cause for planting delays, with producers concerned about germination.

Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $10.21 1/2, up 3/4 cent,

Jan 21 Soybeans closed at $10.25, up 1/4 cent,

Mar 21 Soybeans closed at $10.18 1/4, down 1/2 cent,

May 21 Soybeans closed at $10.17 3/4, up 3/4 cent,

Oct 20 Soybean Meal closed at $343.60, down $5.80

Oct 20 Soybean Oil closed at $32.81, up $0.87

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Winter wheat futures closed the session with double digits gains in the front months. Chicago SRW closed 7 3/4 to 11 cents in the black. HRW futures rallied 13 to 14 3/4 cents on the first trade day of the week. Dry forecasts for areas still planting winter wheat (US, Russia, Ukraine in particular) were supportive. Spring wheat in Minneapolis closed the day up 3 3/4 to 4 1/2 cents. USDA saw winter wheat planting 52% complete as of 10/4. The trade was looking for 48-50%, and the 5-yr average is for 47%. Winter wheat emergence was reported at 24%, compared to the 5-yr average of 21%. The Export Inspections report, with data from the week ending Oct 1, showed 643,671 MT of wheat shipments. That was 56,755 MT above last week’s shipments and up 164k MT yr/yr. The Philippines was the top destination for the week with 175k MT or 27% of the total. The report also showed 9.888 MMT of wheat shipped MYTD, compared to 9 MMT flat in 2019/20.

Dec 20 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.84 1/4, up 11 cents,

Dec 20 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.24 1/4, up 14 3/4 cents,

Dec 20 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.35 1/2, up 3 3/4 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Front month live cattle futures ended the Monday session 27 to 65 cents higher. Feeders rallied off midday losses and closed the session 5 to 50 cents higher. The 10/2 Feeder Cattle Index from CME was 22 cents lower at $142.74. There have been no reports of early cash trade yet this week, last week’s sales were mostly $107-$108. Wholesale boxed beef prices are mixed this afternoon, tightening the Choice/Select spread to $8.97. Choice boxes were $216.98, down $1.90. Select boxes were $0.40 higher to $208.01. USDA estimates 119,000 head of cattle slaughtered on Monday. Compared to 118 for both LW and LY.

Oct 20 Cattle closed at $108.825, up $0.650,

Dec 20 Cattle closed at $111.750, up $0.650,

Feb 21 Cattle closed at $115.225, up $0.500,

Oct 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $140.050, up $0.150

Nov 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $139.925, up $0.050

Jan 21 Feeder Cattle closed at $138.125, up $0.125

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean hog futures closed the first trade day of the week 15 to 55 cents higher. The CME Lean Hog Index was $76.81 on 10/01, up 7 cents. The Fresh Bacon Index from CME was $194.37 for the week ending 10/02. USDA’s National Average Base Hog price was $1.16 higher in the PM update at $64.48. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout value was $2.85 higher to $95 flat. All of the primal cuts were higher, with the weakest gain coming as a 32 cent cwt. increase for butts. Monday’s FI hog slaughter was estimated at 489,000 head. That starts the week even with LW but 4k head above LY.

Oct 20 Hogs closed at $74.750, up $0.250,

Dec 20 Hogs closed at $62.650, up $0.150

Feb 21 Hogs closed at $68.175, up $0.500

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Monday cotton closed 21 to 31 points higher. There were 20 deliveries against October futures MTD through Friday, and preliminary OI was down to 70 contracts as of Friday. NASS said tonight that 83% of the 2020/21 cotton has open bolls, compared to the 5-yr average of 75%. Harvest for this season’s crop was up 4 percentage points from last week to 17% complete. The 5-yr average is 20% harvested. Crop conditions were 5 points lower wk/wk to 311 on the Brugler500 index. OK fell the most on the week, dropping 18 points to 344. GA and KS ratings were also sharply lower falling 12 and 11 points respectively. The Cotlook A index for 10/02 was firm at 71.30 cents/lb. The week’s AWP for cotton is 50.67 cents/lb. The LDP is 1.33 cents through Thursday.

Dec 20 Cotton closed at 66.03, up 21 points,

Mar 21 Cotton closed at 66.92, up 29 points

May 21 Cotton closed at 67.58, up 31 points

Jul 21 Cotton closed at 68.08, up 24 points

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
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Phone: 402-697-3623
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E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
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