Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are fractionally lower so far for the Monday session. Preliminary open interest data showed net new selling on Friday, with OI rising 18,478 contracts. USDA announced a large export sale for 160,020 MT of corn to Mexico. The weekly Export Inspections report showed 34.014 mbu of corn were shipped on the week ending 10/01. That was 15.38 mbu above the same week in 19/20. China was the top destination for the week’s shipments with 40% of the total. China was also the exclusive destination for the week’s sorghum exports, with 157,647 MT. MYTD corn exports are 144.4 mbu through the first 5 weeks of the MY, up 81% yr/yr. Accumulated sorghum exports are 144% above last MY’s pace with 462k MT. Brazilian corn exports were 6.6 MMT for September, up 160k from Sept ’19. Traders expect USDA to show 22-24% of the US corn crop has been harvested, with steady 61% good/ex condition ratings.

Dec 20 Corn is at $3.79 1/4, down 1/2 cent,

Mar 21 Corn is at $3.88 3/4, down 1/2 cent,

May 21 Corn is at $3.94 1/4, down 1/2 cent,

Jul 21 Corn is at $3.97 3/4, down 3/4 cent,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Bean oil futures are in the green at Midday, the rest of the soy complex is trading lower. Soybean futures are down 0.17% to 0.49% at midday. Meal futures are giving back $6.10 to $6.80/ton at midday. Bean oil futures are up 2.13% to 2.27% so far. Chinese markets are still closed for Golden Week. USDA’s weekly Export Inspections report showed 61.25 million bushels of beans shipped on the week ending October 1. That was up 13.6 mbu wk/wk and 22.6 mbu yr/yr. China was the main destination with 1.223 MMT – 73% of the total! Accumulated soybean exports through October 1 were reported at 242.5 mbu, up 57% from 2019/20’s pace. Brazil reported Sept bean shipments at 4.47 MMT, which was down from 4.6 MMT in Sept ’19. Trade ideas for US soybean harvest progress are running 30-33%. We would not be surprised if it was higher. Mato Grasso Soy planting is 1.7% complete, the 5-yr average is 9.59%. Prolonged dryness was cited as the cause in planting delays.

Nov 20 Soybeans are at $10.16 3/4, down 4 cents,

Jan 21 Soybeans are at $10.20 3/4, down 4 cents,

Mar 21 Soybeans are at $10.15 3/4, down 3 cents,

May 21 Soybeans are at $10.15 1/2, down 1 1/2 cents,

Oct 20 Soybean Meal is at $342.80, down $6.60

Oct 20 Soybean Oil is at $32.62, up $0.68

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Wheat futures have begun to back off from double digit gains earlier in the session, but are still trading in the black. SRW futures are trading 4 to 7 1/2 cents higher. HRW futures are 9 1/2 cents to 10 3/4 cents. Dry forecasts for areas still planting winter wheat (US, Russia, Ukraine in particular) are keeping a bid under the market. HRS futures are trading 2 1/2 to 6 cents higher. USDA is expected to show winter wheat planting 48-50% done in tonight’s report. The Export Inspections report, with data from the week ending Oct 1, showed 643,671 MT of wheat shipments. That was 56,755 MT above last week’s shipments and up 164k MT yr/yr. The Philippines was the top destination for the week with 175k MT or 27% of the total. The report also showed 9.888 MMT of wheat shipped MYTD, compared to 9 MMT flat in 2019/20. IKAR sees Russian wheat output at 83 MMT, up 200k from their Sept est.

Dec 20 CBOT Wheat is at $5.81 1/4, up 8 cents,

Dec 20 KCBT Wheat is at $5.20 3/4, up 11 1/4 cents,

Dec 20 MGEX Wheat is at $5.34 3/4, up 3 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Live cattle futures are up 20 to 55 cents so far for the Monday session. Feeder cattle futures are lower at midday, but climbing back to near UNCH. The October 1 Feeder Cattle Index from CME was 58 cents stronger to $142.96. There have been no reports of early cash trade yet this week, last week’s sales were a wide range but mostly near $107-$108. Wholesale boxed beef prices are mixed this morning, tightening the spread to $8.21. Choice boxes were $217.47, down $1.41. Select boxes were $1.65 higher to $209.26. Weekly federally inspected cattle slaughter was estimated at 665,000 head. That was up 20,000 from the same week in 2019.

Oct 20 Cattle are at $108.375, up $0.200,

Dec 20 Cattle are at $111.450, up $0.350,

Feb 21 Cattle are at $115.000, up $0.275,

Oct 20 Feeder Cattle are at $139.800, down $0.100

Nov 20 Feeder Cattle are at $139.725, down $0.150

Jan 21 Feeder Cattle are at $137.800, down $0.200

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Midday lean hog futures are up 12 to 42 cents after the weekend break, with Dec the exception- down 17 cents at midday. The CME Lean Hog Index was $76.81 on 10/01, up 7 cents. The Fresh Bacon Index from CME was $194.37 for the week ending 10/02. USDA’s National Average Base Hog price did not move from $63.32 this morning. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout value was delayed this morning from technical difficulties, on Friday PM it was $92.15. USDA estimated the week’s FI hog slaughter at 2.603 million head through Saturday. That was down 57,000 from the same week last year.

Oct 20 Hogs are at $74.675, up $0.175,

Dec 20 Hogs are at $62.325, down $0.175

Feb 21 Hogs are at $67.900, up $0.225

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Monday cotton trading has futures 57 to 74 points higher so far. There were 20 deliveries against October futures MTD through Friday, and preliminary OI was less than 5 contracts. Cotton opens the new week 54 to 65 points higher. Crude oil and the stock market are also higher this morning. Nothing terrible appeared to happen to the President over the weekend, so the risk off moves from late last week are being reversed. Last week’s sales on The Seam were 15,075 bales at a wtd price of 56.69 cents/lb. The Cotlook A index for 10/02 was firm at 71.30 cents/lb. The week’s AWP for cotton is 50.67 cents/lb. The LDP is 1.33 cents for the week.

Dec 20 Cotton is at 66.5, up 68 points

Mar 21 Cotton is at 67.33, up 70 points

May 21 Cotton is at 68.01, up 74 points

Jul 21 Cotton is at 68.50, up 66 points

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
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Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com

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