Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are fractionally mixed this morning. On Friday, Dec corn traded with a 6 cent range but ended the session down by 3 @ $3.79 3/4 per bushel. Preliminary open interest data showed net new selling on Friday, with OI rising 18,478 contracts. The weekend profit taking reduced the net gain for the week to 14 1/2 cents higher. All of that gain came on the Wednesday USDA data revisions. CFTC data showed managed money extended their net long by 10,908 contracts to 106,820 as of 9/29. Brazilian corn exports were 6.6 MMT for September, up 160k from Sept ’19. IHS Markit lowered their corn yield forecast to 177.8 bpa with 14.812 billion bushels of production. Traders expect USDA to show 22-24% of the US corn crop has been harvested.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Beans are fractionally mixed after approximately 8 cent per bushel swings overnight. On Friday, soybeans closed lower in the nearbys, with fractional to 2 3/4 cent losses. Preliminary open interest rose 13,162 contracts. Meal futures were higher adding $3.60 to $4.40 gains to the week’s move, which for October was $12.5/ton. BO closed down by 71 to 76 points on Friday. Chinese markets are still closed for Golden Week. The Friday Commitment of Traders report showed the strongest net long for soybean spec funds since September 2012 with a 229,043 contract net long on 9/29. That was 17,900 contracts longer wk/wk via net new buying. Net new buying was also reported for soymeal spec traders, with a 7,751 contract larger net long to 72,999 contracts. Managed money was less net long in soybean oil on the 29th, down 7,604 contracts for the week to 94,098 long. Brazil reported Sept bean shipments at 4.47 MMT, which was down from 4.6 MMT in Sept ’19. Trade ideas for US soybean harvest progress are running 30-33%. We would not be surprised if it was higher.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Wheat starts the new week 6 to 11 cents higher, with double digit gains in both KC and CHI. Dry forecasts for areas still planting winter wheat (US, Russia, Ukraine in particular) are keeping a bid under the market. Friday wheat trading left winter wheat futures in the black but spring wheat lower. SRW futures closed the last trade day of the week 3 to 4 cents higher. Dec SRW was 5% higher from Friday to Friday. HRW futures ended the session 3 to 3 1/2 cents stronger, with Dec up 6.7% wk/wk. HRS futures were down 1 3/4 to 2 cents on the day, but Dec was still 2 pennies higher on the week. CFTC’s weekly Commitment of Traders report showed a 12,424 contract net long from funds in SRW. That was down 2,119 contracts on net with lower OI. Managed money funds were 18,025 contracts net long in KC wheat. In HRS futures and options, spec traders added more shorts and expanded their net short to 4,830 contracts. USDA is expected to show winter wheat planting 48-50% done in tonight’s report.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Front month live cattle worked lower on Friday with 35 to 82 cent losses. October cattle options expired and the underlying closed ~$1.17 above the cash market. Feeder cattle futures ended the last trade day of the week with triple digit losses. The October 1 Feeder Cattle Index from CME was 58 cents stronger to $142.96. Most cash business was complete through Thursday, USDA reported some cleanup Friday sales at $106 -$109, mostly $107 and $108. The CoT report showed managed money was 62,924 contracts net long in cattle on 9/29. That was 4,925 contracts stronger wk/wk from net new buying. In feeders, managed money funds were 165 contracts more net long at 875 contracts. Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower Friday afternoon, tightening the spread to $11.27. Choice boxes were $218.88, down a dime, and Select boxes were $207.61, down a penny. Weekly federally inspected cattle slaughter was estimated at 665,000 head. That is up 20,000 from the same week in 2019. USDA estimates the YTD slaughter at 24.173 million head, which is still 4.1% lower yr/yr.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean hog futures ended the Friday session with 2 to 35 cent gains, and 20 to 35 cent losses. The CME Lean Hog Index was $76.74 on 9/30, up another 20 cents and a $1.24 premium to Oct futures with a little over a week left until expiration. USDA’s National Average Base Hog price was down $0.89 in the PM report @ $63.52. Lean hog spec traders were 2,773 contracts less net long on 9/29 than the previous Tuesday. The long liquidation left managed money at 40,807 contracts net long. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout value fell $3.50 cwt. to $92.15, on weakness in hams. The primal cuts were mixed, mostly higher, but hams fell $15 cwt. to $78.34. USDA estimated the week’s FI hog slaughter at 2.603 million head through Saturday. That was down 57,000 from the same week last year. YTD slaughter still outpaces 2019 by 1%. It had been running 3-4% above LY before the COVID-19 shutdowns and liquidations.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton opens the new week 54 to 65 points higher. Crude oil and the stock market are also higher this morning. Nothing terrible appeared to happen to the President over the weekend, so the risk off moves from late last week are being reversed. At the closing bell on Friday, front month cotton futures were 7 to 12 points lower. From Friday to Friday Dec cotton futures fell back a modest 13 points. CFTC data showed cotton specs were 51,128 contracts net long on Sept 29. That was down just 183 contracts week over week. USDA’s weekly Cotton Market Review had 17,490 bales sold at spot for the week ending 10/1. That was 6,053 bales above the previous week’s spot business. The average spot price was 60.10 cents/lb, up 28 points wk/wk. WTD sales on The Seam were 14,297 bales at a wtd price of 57.04 cents/lb. The week’s new AWP for cotton is 50.67 cents/lb. The LDP is 1.33 cents for the week.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
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Phone: 402-697-3623
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E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com

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