Ag Market Commentary

Futures have been trading in both directions early on Friday but are 1 1/4 to 2 1/4 cent in the red at midday. President Trump has tested positive for the coronavirus, prompting a flight to cash ahead of the weekend due to uncertainty about the eventual severity of the disease. Private exporters sold 264,000 MT of corn to China. Total US export commitments were 969.34 mbu on 9/24, which is 154% above the same week last year. Of the total commitments, 40.4% are China and 17.7% are to Mexico with 392 mbu and 171 mbu respectively. USDA reported corn use for ethanol in August was 411.08 mbu. That leaves 2019/20 total corn use for ethanol at 4.8525 billion bushels, just a smidge below USDA’s Sept WASDE estimate of 4.855 billion. Brazilian corn exports were 6.6 MMT for September, up 160k from Sept ’19.

Dec 20 Corn is at $3.80 1/2, down 2 1/4 cents,

Mar 21 Corn is at $3.89 3/4, down 2 1/4 cents,

May 21 Corn is at $3.95 1/4, down 2 cents,

Jul 21 Corn is at $3.99 1/2, down 1 1/2 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



With wide ranges through the early portion of Friday, soybeans are fractionally to 1 3/4 cents lower at midday. The President and First Lady tested positive for COVID-19 and began quarantining. Soymeal futures are higher at midday, adding $3.40 to $4.20/ton. Midday bean oil futures are down another 60 to 70 points. Chinese markets are closed for Golden Week. USDA reported a private export sale of 252,000 MT of soybeans to unknown. Weekly Export Sales data had soybean bookings from the week ending 9/24 at 2.591 MMT. Accumulated export commitments are 1.4 billion bushels, which is 169% above 2019/20 and 46% above the record 16/17 MY through the first 4 weeks. August crush was on the light side of expectations with 174.7 mbu. That brought the 2019/20 MY crush to 2.164 billion, compared to the Sept WASDE forecast of 2.180 bbu. Soybean oil stocks shrank 165 million lbs from July to August, ending the month at 1.958b lbs. Brazil reported Sept bean shipments at 4.47 MMT, which was down from 4.6 MMT in Sept ’19.

Nov 20 Soybeans are at $10.23, down 1/2 cent,

Jan 21 Soybeans are at $10.26 3/4, down 1/2 cent,

Mar 21 Soybeans are at $10.20 1/4, down 3/4 cent,

May 21 Soybeans are at $10.17 1/2, down 1 1/4 cents,

Oct 20 Soybean Meal is at $349.20, up $4.20

Oct 20 Soybean Oil is at $32.05, down $0.60

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Friday wheat trading has front month futures recovering from Thursday’s pullback. SRW futures are trading 2 1/2 to 4 cents higher so far. KC wheat is up 1 3/4 to 3 1/2 cents at midday. MGE spring wheat futures are trading 1 to 3 1/2 cents higher after an initial sag on the White House coronavirus news. Export Sales data showed 506,284 MT of wheat sold on the week ending 9/24. Total wheat export commitments through the first 17 weeks of the MY were 514 mbu. That is 8.4% above 2019/20 through the same period.

Dec 20 CBOT Wheat is at $5.74 1/4, up 4 cents,

Dec 20 KCBT Wheat is at $5.10, up 3 1/2 cents,

Dec 20 MGEX Wheat is at $5.37, up 3 1/2 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cattle futures are trading 37 to 82 cents lower at midday with December the weakest. October cattle options expire today, with 108 the most obvious pin target. Some feeder cattle futures are down triple digits ahead of the weekend. The 9/30 CME Feeder Cattle Index was 20 cents lower at $142.38. There have not been any reported Friday cash cattle sales yet, southern bids were reported at $107. Trade this week has been wide from $103 to $109, with the bulk of sales near $107. Wholesale boxed beef prices were up again on Friday morning. Choice boxes were $1.17 higher, and Select boxes were up 43 cents. Federally inspected cattle slaughter for the week through Thursday was 478,000 head.

Oct 20 Cattle are at $108.150, down $0.375,

Dec 20 Cattle are at $111.000, down $0.825,

Feb 21 Cattle are at $114.775, down $0.700,

Oct 20 Feeder Cattle are at $140.025, down $0.900

Nov 20 Feeder Cattle are at $140.075, down $1.175

Jan 21 Feeder Cattle are at $137.925, down $1.625

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Midday hogs are trading in both directions, with losses limited to 22 cents and gains less than 50. The CME Lean Hog Index was $76.74 on 9/30, up another 20 cents and premium to the futures. USDA’s National Average Base Hog price was down $1.10 in the AM report @ $63.60. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout value fell back $1.76 to $93.89, on weakness in Hams. Most of the primal cuts were up by more than $1 cwt. but were offset by a $12.63 drop in hams. USDA estimated the week’s FI hog slaughter at 1.926 million head through Thursday. That was down 2,000 the same week last year.

Oct 20 Hogs are at $74.575, up $0.425,

Dec 20 Hogs are at $62.775, down $0.075

Feb 21 Hogs are at $67.925, up $0.050

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Front month cotton futures are trading with midday losses of 43 to 64 points. August ending stocks were reported at 1,825 running bales from the monthly Cotton Systems report. USDA’s weekly Export Sales update had cotton bookings at 233,751 RBs for the week ending 9/24. Accumulated cotton export commitments are 7.956m RBs through the first 8 weeks of the MY. That is down 7% yr/yr. The Cotlook A index for 10/01 was up 50 points to 71.30 c/lb. The week’s new AWP for cotton is 50.67 cents/lb. That lowered the LDP 22 points to 1.33 cents.

Oct 20 Cotton is at 64.61, UNCH

Dec 20 Cotton is at 65.38, down 53 points

Mar 21 Cotton is at 66.24, down 46 points

May 21 Cotton is at 66.73, down 64 points

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






<p>Market Commentary provided by:<br /> <img src="https://s3.amazonaws.com/images1.aws.barchart.com/logos/bruglerlogo.gif" border="0" /><br /> Brugler Marketing &amp; Management LLC<br /> 1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022<br /> Phone: 402-697-3623<br /> Fax: 402-289-2353<br /> E-mail: <a href="mailto:alanb@bruglermktg.com">alanb@bruglermktg.com</a><br /> Web: <a href="http://bruglermarketing.com/">http://bruglermarketing.com</a></p> <p align="center"><!-- [if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal</w:View> <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:TrackMoves/> <w:TrackFormatting/> <w:PunctuationKerning/> <w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/> <w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:DoNotPromoteQF/> <w:LidThemeOther>EN-US</w:LidThemeOther> <w:LidThemeAsian>X-NONE</w:LidThemeAsian> <w:LidThemeComplexScript>X-NONE</w:LidThemeComplexScript> <w:Compatibility> <w:BreakWrappedTables/> 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