Ag Market Commentary

Follow through buying on Thursday left corn prices 2 to 3 3/4 cents higher on the day. USDA reported corn use for ethanol in August was 411.08 mbu. That was down 3.1% from July and down 9.6% yr/yr. The marketing year corn use for ethanol was 4.8525 billion bushels. The Export Sales report had corn bookings from the week ending 09/24 of 2.027 MMT. USDA’s daily reporting system already covered 38% of that with 3 previously announced sales; nonetheless, sales were still well above expectations and 260% above the same week last year. Four of the last 5 weeks have seen more than 2 MMT of 2020/21 corn sales. Total commitments are 969.34 mbu, which is 154% above the same week last year. Brokerage firm StoneX sees a 14.942 bbu corn crop on a 179 bpa yield. That is down 0.6 bpa from their previous forecast.

Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.82 3/4, up 3 3/4 cents,

Mar 21 Corn closed at $3.92, up 3 3/4 cents,

May 21 Corn closed at $3.97 1/4, up 3 3/4 cents,

Jul 21 Corn closed at $4.01, up 3 3/4 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soy futures were fractionally mixed in the deferred months, but closed where they started the day in the first three contracts. Soymeal futures ended the day up $4.80 to $5.30/ton in the front months. Bean oil futures however fell back by 70 to 72 points. There have been 76 soymeal deliveries issued against October futures. Preliminary OI is 2,319 contracts as of 9/30. USDA announced a private export sale for 120,000 MT of soybeans to Egypt under the daily reporting system. Weekly Export Sales data had soybean bookings from the week ending 9/24 at 2.591 MMT (42% of sales known). That was above trade estimates and 29% above the same week last year. MYTD soybean shipments exports were 4.68 MMT via weekly data. Soymeal sales were above pre report expectations as well. FAS says 536,675 MT of meal was booked on the week, split 3% and 97% for 19/20 and 2020/21 delivery respectively. A sale for 100k MT was previously reported. Soy oil sales were 6,815 MT mostly switched from China to South Korea. The monthly Fats and Oils report has official crush data for 2019/20. August crush was on the light side of expectations with 174.7 mbu. That brought the 2019/20 MY crush to 2.164 billion, compared to the Sept WASDE forecast of 2.180 bbu. Soybean oil stocks fell back 165 million lbs from July to August, ending the month at 1.958b lbs. StoneX lowered their national bean crop estimate to 4.351 bbu on a 52.4 bpa yield.

Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $10.23 1/2, unch,

Jan 21 Soybeans closed at $10.27 1/4, unch,

Mar 21 Soybeans closed at $10.21, unch,

May 21 Soybeans closed at $10.18 3/4, up 1/4 cent,

Oct 20 Soybean Meal closed at $345.00, up $5.30

Oct 20 Soybean Oil closed at $32.65, down $0.72

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Wheat gave back some of Wednesday’s gains. CBT wheat was down 5 to 7 cents. KC futures closed 2 3/4 to 3 cents lower. And MGE wheat futures closed 3 3/4 to 6 3/4 cents in the red. The wheat/corn premium strengthened about 6 cents during September. However, today’s action lowered the premium to $1.87 1/2 per bushel for Dec SRW and corn. Export Sales data showed 506,284 MT of wheat sold on the week ending 9/24. That was up 44% wk/wk, up 54% yr/yr and just above the trade average guess. Mexico was the top purchaser on the week. Wheat exports from the weekly update were 13.8% above the same week last year with 646,900 MT. That brought MYTD wheat exports to 8.79 MMT.

Dec 20 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.70 1/4, down 7 3/4 cents,

Dec 20 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.06 1/2, down 3 1/4 cents,

Dec 20 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.33 1/2, down 6 3/4 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cattle futures closed the Thursday session 52 cents lower to 22 cents higher in the front months. Feeders were lower on Thursday with losses of 42 to 80 cents. The 9/30 CME Feeder Cattle Index was 20 cents lower at $142.38. The wide cash range continued for Thursday, with live sales reported from $104 to $109 and $164 to $169 dressed. The majority of sales have been near $107. Beef export sales were a 9-week high of 24,681 MT. Japan was the top purchaser on the week. The weekly report had beef shipments at 16,585 MT for the week ending 9/24. Accumulated beef exports were 0.75% ahead of last year’s pace with 598,742 MT. Wholesale boxed beef prices were up again this afternoon. Choice boxes were $1.24 higher, and Select boxes were up 8 cents. Federally inspected cattle slaughter for the week through Thursday was 478,000 head. That trails last week’s pace by 4k head, but is up 8,000 from the same week last year.

Oct 20 Cattle closed at $108.525, down $0.025,

Dec 20 Cattle closed at $111.825, down $0.525,

Feb 21 Cattle closed at $115.475, down $0.400,

Oct 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $140.925, down $0.425

Nov 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $141.250, down $0.800

Jan 21 Feeder Cattle closed at $139.550, down $0.750

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



At the closing bell lean hog futures were mixed within a quarter of UNCH. October contracts however were up triple digits, rallying with cash prices ahead of expiration on the 14th. The CME Lean Hog Index was $76.54 on 9/29, up another 63 cents. USDA’s National Average Base Hog price was delayed due to packer submission issues, this mornings’ quote was $63.60. The weekly Export Sales report had pork sales at 39,544 MT. That was up 5% on the week and was 28% above the same week last year. Mexico was the top purchaser, with 45% of the total. Total pork commitments to Mexico are 26% of the total; Chinese business accounts for 38% of total commitments YTD. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout value was $4.28 stronger in the PM report to $95.65 cwt. Hams were up $9.88 and bellies were $8.82 higher. USDA estimated the week’s FI hog slaughter at 1.926 million head through Thursday. That is down 2,000 the same week last year.

Oct 20 Hogs closed at $74.150, up $1.350,

Dec 20 Hogs closed at $62.850, down $0.250

Feb 21 Hogs closed at $67.875, down $0.125

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton futures traded higher briefly before spending most of the day in the red. Prices eventually rallied back in the afternoon and closed 4 to 16 points in the black. The monthly Cotton Systems report again withheld domestic consumption due to confidentiality. The last reported consumption was 1,484 RBs in March. August ending stocks were reported at 1,825 running bales. that was 16.9% above July’s stocks but still down 42% yr/yr. USDA’s weekly Export Sales update had cotton bookings at 233,751 RBs for the week ending 9/24. That was 152% above las week and 51% higher yr/yr. The report also showed 2021/22 activity, with Mexico purchasing 16,300 RBs for NMY delivery. Exports from the week were reported at 218,197 RBs, which brought the MY total to 2.2 million. USDA reported 6,149 bales sold at spot for an average price of 60.27 c/lb on 10/01. The Cotlook A index was 71.15 c/lb on Sept 29, that was 15 points weaker. The week’s new AWP for cotton is 50.67 cents/lb. That lowered the LDP 22 points to 1.33 cents.

Oct 20 Cotton closed at 64.61, up 12 points,

Dec 20 Cotton closed at 65.91, up 12 points

Mar 21 Cotton closed at 66.7, up 16 points

May 21 Cotton closed at 67.37, up 10 points

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






<p>Market Commentary provided by:<br /> <img src="https://s3.amazonaws.com/images1.aws.barchart.com/logos/bruglerlogo.gif" border="0" /><br /> Brugler Marketing &amp; Management LLC<br /> 1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022<br /> Phone: 402-697-3623<br /> Fax: 402-289-2353<br /> E-mail: <a href="mailto:alanb@bruglermktg.com">alanb@bruglermktg.com</a><br /> Web: <a href="http://bruglermarketing.com/">http://bruglermarketing.com</a></p> <p align="center"><!-- [if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal</w:View> <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:TrackMoves/> <w:TrackFormatting/> <w:PunctuationKerning/> <w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/> <w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:DoNotPromoteQF/> <w:LidThemeOther>EN-US</w:LidThemeOther> <w:LidThemeAsian>X-NONE</w:LidThemeAsian> <w:LidThemeComplexScript>X-NONE</w:LidThemeComplexScript> <w:Compatibility> <w:BreakWrappedTables/> 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