Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are trading 2 to 5 cents higher at midday. Corn bookings from the week ending 09/24 were 2.027 MMT. USDA’s daily reporting system already covered 38% of that with 3 previously announced sales. Nonetheless sales were still well above expectations, and 260% above the same week last year. 4 of the last 5 weeks have seen more than 2 MMT of 2020/21 corn sales. Total commitments are 969.34 mbu, which is 154% above the same week last year. USDA saw 1.995 bbu of corn stocks on Sept 1. 2019/20 corn production was increased by 2.67 mbu to 13.620 bbu. NASS hiked their implied 3Q use by 205 million bushels from the number they published in June.

Dec 20 Corn is at $3.83 3/4, up 4 3/4 cents,

Mar 21 Corn is at $3.92 3/4, up 4 1/2 cents,

May 21 Corn is at $3.97 3/4, up 4 1/4 cents,

Jul 21 Corn is at $4.01 1/4, up 4 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Front month bean futures are fractionally to 2 3/4 cents higher so far. Soymeal futures are up another $5.50 to $6.30/ton. Bean oil futures are trading with a 65 to 69 point pull back. There have been 76 soymeal deliveries issued against October futures. Preliminary OI is 2,319 contracts as of 9/30. USDA announced a private export sale for 120,000 MT of soybeans to Egypt. Export Sales data had soybean bookings from the week ending 9/24 at 2.591 MMT (42% of sales known). That was just above the trade average guess and 29% above the same week last year. Soybean shipments were reported at 1.14 MMT for the week, pushing MYTD exports to 4.68 MMT. China purchased 1.329 MMT of soybeans. Accumulated soybean commitments to China are 54% of the U.S. total business. Soymeal sales were above pre report expectations as well. 536,675 MT of meal was booked on the week, split 3% and 97% for 19/20 and 2020/21 delivery respectively. A sale for 100k MT was previously reported. Soy oil sales were 6,815 MT mostly switched from China to South Korea. Ahead of today’s fats and oils report traders expect August crush to be 157.7 mbu. Recall NOPA members crushed 165.055 mbu. Soybean oil stocks are estimated at 1.994 billion lbs.

Nov 20 Soybeans are at $10.26 1/4, up 2 3/4 cents,

Jan 21 Soybeans are at $10.30, up 2 3/4 cents,

Mar 21 Soybeans are at $10.23 1/4, up 2 1/4 cents,

May 21 Soybeans are at $10.20 1/4, up 1 3/4 cents,

Oct 20 Soybean Meal is at $345.70, up $6.00

Oct 20 Soybean Oil is at $32.68, down $0.69

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Thursday wheat trading has futures mixed mostly in pull back mode. HRW futures are trading within 2 cents of UNCH at midday. Front month SRW futures on the CBOT are down 1 1/2 to 2 1/2 cents at midday. MGE wheat futures are down 2 to 4 cents so far. Export Sales data showed 506,284 MT of wheat sold on the week ending 9/24. That was up 44% wk/wk, up 54% yr/yr and just above the trade average guess. Mexico was the top purchaser on the week. Wheat exports from the weekly update were 13.8% above the same week last year with 646,900 MT. That brought MYTD wheat exports to 8.79 MMT. The September Grain Stocks report had Sept 1 wheat stocks at 2.159 bbu. The Small Grains Report lowered wheat production by 12 mbu from August with a 1.826 bbu crop.

Dec 20 CBOT Wheat is at $5.75 3/4, down 2 1/4 cents,

Dec 20 KCBT Wheat is at $5.10, up 1/4 cent,

Dec 20 MGEX Wheat is at $5.36 1/4, down 4 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Fat cattle futures are trading withing 30 cents of UNCH at midday. save for April and June ’21 contracts which are up 65 cents. Feeder cattle futures are trading lower, down 30 to 77 cents so far. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was $142.58 on 9/29, back up by 22 cents. Cash sales on Wednesday were all over the board, USDA reported live sales from $104 to $108, and $165 to $169 dressed basis. The bulk of reported sales so far is $106-$107. Beef export sales were a 9-week high of 24,681 MT. Japan was the top purchaser on the week. The weekly report had beef shipments at 16,585 MT for the week ending 9/24. Accumulated beef exports were 0.75% ahead of last year’s pace with 598,742 MT. Wholesale boxed beef prices were up again this morning. Choice boxes were 84 cents higher, and Select boxes were up 89 cents. Federally inspected cattle slaughter for the week through Wednesday was 358,000 head. That trails last week’s pace by 3k head, but is up 5,000 from the same week last year.

Oct 20 Cattle are at $108.675, up $0.125,

Dec 20 Cattle are at $112.075, down $0.275,

Feb 21 Cattle are at $115.750, down $0.125,

Oct 20 Feeder Cattle are at $141.050, down $0.300

Nov 20 Feeder Cattle are at $141.275, down $0.775

Jan 21 Feeder Cattle are at $139.600, down $0.700

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean hog futures are trading mixed at midday, with gains of as much as $1.30 and losses of as much as 47 cents. The CME Lean Hog Index was $76.54 on 9/29, up another 63 cents. USDA’s National Average Base Hog price was down $1.10 to $63.60. The weekly Export Sales report had pork sales at 39,544 MT. That was up 5% on the week and was 28% above the same week last year. Mexico was the top purchaser, with 45% of the total. Total pork commitments to Mexico are 26% of the total, Chinese business accounts for 38% of total commitments YTD. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout value spiked $8.69 this morning to above $100 cwt. Hams were up $16.63 and bellies were $25.17 higher in the AM update. Hams and bellies were weaker, but the other primal cuts were stronger in the PM report. USDA estimated the week’s FI hog slaughter at 1.447 million head through Wednesday. That was down 3,000 from last week and 14,000 head below the same week last year.

Oct 20 Hogs are at $74.100, up $1.300,

Dec 20 Hogs are at $62.625, down $0.475

Feb 21 Hogs are at $67.775, down $0.225

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton futures are trading 8 to 14 points lower so far. Futures were 45 to 51 points in the black at the closing bell on Wednesday. USDA’s weekly Export Sales update had cotton bookings at 233,751 RBs for the week ending 9/24. That was 152% above las week and 51% higher yr/yr. The report also showed 2021/22 activity, with Mexico purchasing 16,300 RBs for NMY delivery. Exports from the week were reported at 218,197 RBs, which brought the MY total to 2.2 million. USDA’s Daily Spot Quotations report noted 5,831 bales sold on 9/30 for an average price of 60.15 cents/lb. The online cotton trading platform The Seam reported 1,249 bales sold on Tuesday for 53.25 cents/lb. The Cotlook A index was 71.15 c/lb on Sept 29, that was 15 points weaker. The AWP for cotton is 50.45 cents/lb, the LDP is 1.55 cents. Both will be updated after the close.

Oct 20 Cotton is at 64.49, unch

Dec 20 Cotton is at 65.67, down 12 points

Mar 21 Cotton is at 66.44, down 10 points

May 21 Cotton is at 67.19, down 8 points

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






<p>Market Commentary provided by:<br /> <img src="https://s3.amazonaws.com/images1.aws.barchart.com/logos/bruglerlogo.gif" border="0" /><br /> Brugler Marketing &amp; Management LLC<br /> 1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022<br /> Phone: 402-697-3623<br /> Fax: 402-289-2353<br /> E-mail: <a href="mailto:alanb@bruglermktg.com">alanb@bruglermktg.com</a><br /> Web: <a href="http://bruglermarketing.com/">http://bruglermarketing.com</a></p> <p align="center"><!-- [if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal</w:View> <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:TrackMoves/> <w:TrackFormatting/> <w:PunctuationKerning/> <w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/> <w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:DoNotPromoteQF/> <w:LidThemeOther>EN-US</w:LidThemeOther> <w:LidThemeAsian>X-NONE</w:LidThemeAsian> <w:LidThemeComplexScript>X-NONE</w:LidThemeComplexScript> <w:Compatibility> <w:BreakWrappedTables/> 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